What can the rest of the world learn from the COVID-19 impact data from New York ?
Coronavirus has now spread to nearly every state and territory. As of 31st March 2020 the total COVID-19 cases in the US were 185,499 while the total COVID-19 deaths numbered 3,834.
Let’s take a closer look at a US COVID-19 heat map. The heat map shows the ‘incidence’ (measured here as cases as a proportion of total state population) and deaths across the US as at the end of 31st March 2020. The darker the red colour the higher the virus incidence in the state; the larger the black dot the higher the number of deaths. New York stands out with the highest incidence (41%) as well as the highest number of deaths (41%) in the US.
Let’s take a closer look at the COVID-19 related data for New York. The data shows that 42% of the cases here are for the 18-44 age group – the young are therefore not immune to this virus even though the death rate is almost close to zero at the moment for this age group.
The 45-64 age group is also showing a disturbingly high incidence (35% of the total) and death rate (2%). As expected the 74+ age group is the most at risk of death with an alarming death rate (13%). Males appear to be more at risk than females but this might be due to co-factors that need further investigation.
A key factor in all of this is the proportion of cases requiring hospitalisation. This sizes up the true impact on health services. 1 in 5 of all the cases requires hospitalisation on average. Ominously, 1 in 10 of the cases less than 45 years of age require hospitalisation. The hospitalisation rate goes up with age as expected
Now let’s look at the impact of boroughs. The incidence is highest in Queens and Brooklyn. The proportion of deaths in the Bronx is higher relative to the proportion of cases there. This suggests that the death rate is higher for the Bronx area. The proportion of cases requiring hospitalisation is also highest for the Brooklyn area.
Coronavirus does not respect boundaries. The major metropolitan cities around the world who still have time should use this to prepare for what might be coming their way.
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